Blog
Where curiosity gets expensive.
Essays on investing, markets, software, AI, and the ideas that looked simple before I made the mistake of looking closer.
14 posts
- 32 min read204 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 2 votes
The System for Scaling a Business
Find the one constraint that limits everything, fix it, scale what works, and repeat.
- 16 min read183 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 1 vote
The Multiple Is the Size of Your Bet on the Future
A valuation multiple measures the size of your bet: how much value depends on distant cash flows and how sensitive the valuation is to WACC and growth.
- 24 min read342 views
Growth Is Not Always Good
More sales, more profits, less value: what happens when growth costs too much.
- 27 min read393 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 2 votes
Multiples Are DCFs for Lazy People
A simple explanation of why P/FCF, P/E, earnings yield, P/B, P/S, and PEG come from the same assumptions as a DCF: cash, risk, and growth.
- 19 min read432 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 4 votes
How to Value a Lemonade Stand
A simple explanation of discounted cash flow, discount rates, and free cash flow using the simplest business in the world.
- 13 min read230 viewsRated 4 out of 5 in 2 votes
Return Engines
Trend following, carry, merger arbitrage, cat bonds, and macro relative value: different return engines, who pays you, and when they can hurt.
- 21 min read513 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 3 votes
Diversification Is Not About Counting Stocks
Most investors diversify for the wrong reason. That is how they end up buying more stocks without reducing the risk that actually matters.
- 25 min read782 viewsRated 3.3 out of 5 in 6 votes
Structural Market Inefficiencies
Twelve market inefficiencies to improve your investment process: value, momentum, profitability, low beta, small caps, illiquidity, and other useful signals for investing better.
- 13 min read184 viewsRated 4 out of 5 in 2 votes
Is Buffett Really a Good Investor?
Nobel Prizes, statistical anomalies, orangutans flipping coins, leverage, and the paper that tries to explain the Berkshire miracle.
- 21 min read308 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 4 votes
You Don't Understand Share Buybacks
Why cancelling 17% of the shares does not mean creating 17% of value, and how to separate EPS accretion from real value creation.
- 45 min read2,034 viewsRated 4 out of 5 in 6 votes
10x Stocks: The DNA of Multibaggers
Analysis of 10x stocks and multibaggers: size, valuation, profitability, growth, investment, free cash flow and the signals that best explain their returns.
- 14 min read369 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 1 vote
Which share buybacks work best: a step-by-step backtest
An experiment with historical data to distinguish buybacks that truly reduce the share count from those that merely improve EPS and decorate the narrative.
- 8 min read235 viewsRated 5 out of 5 in 2 votes
Manager-led funds and poker players
On the emerging ecosystem of manager-led funds, the habit of staking each other among poker players, and why difference is the only thing that justifies spreading capital across managers.
- 13 min read451 viewsRated 4.6 out of 5 in 8 votes
Share Buybacks
What share buybacks are, why they matter, and when they create or destroy shareholder value.